I think, in the past, they've generally tried to take the Christmas action blockbuster route - though come to think of it, last year's tale was another literary homage fluff piece with no real villain (debatably - he's at least presented as sympathetic though I actually think there's relatively little excuse for his actions). I can see this kind of thing fits Moffat's personal preferences much better than the high octane stuff though.

I like Matt Smith's Doctor, it's very much won me around, but then I was into Doctor Who before he was supposed to be a romantic love interest, or indeed particularly sympathetic or understanding of humans. Smith's performance harks back to Tom Baker and before more closely than anything that's come since, I think.