Private Information and Inference about Inference

[purplecat]

Sobei H. Oda (together with co-authors, Gen Masumoto and Hiroyasu Yoneda) had been simulating the (I think) Future's market. In particular he had been testing the hypothesis that you make more money if you have better information about the future price of a commodity. He had a graph that showed the people with no information doing a little better than those with just a little information. The people with lots of information still did best. He had some maths to explain this, which it must be said I didn't follow, but I thought it was an interesting effect.